Forecasting The Future: Strategic Scenario Planning
- M. Onder Pembe
- 27 Şub 2023
- 2 dakikada okunur
Güncelleme tarihi: 13 May 2023
Strategy is entirely related to the future. It is a future-oriented discipline. A person who defines himself/herself as strategist, should try to foresee and sense of the future in the most of his/her time.
The basis of strategic scenarios is factors and assumptions. Assumptions based on factors give us an opportunity to predict the future states and manage uncertanities. Via scenarios, managers get ready for the future at first mentally, and then physically (with action plans and resources).
THE PROCESS
This practical Strategic Scenario Planning process consists of 3 steps:
Analysis
Writing Scenario
Planning
1. Analysis
In the first step, a well-defined scenario subject should be started with: "What would we like to learn about the future?" For example:
"Next year, how will COVID-19 spread impact our business in European markets?"
"In two years, which M&As will take place in our main markets?"
"How much will ecommerce grow in Sub-saharan for the next 3 years?"
"How will Asia supply chain hub change through COVID-19 pandemic?"
"Will the container crisis end next year?"
...
A subject should content two dimensions: A geography focus and time frame.
"How much will ecommerce grow in Sub-saharan for the next 3 years?"
Geography Focus: Sub-saharan
Time Frame: The next 3 years
The next step is to define the factors which mostly impact on us through the scenario subject via Factor Analysis. And then assumptions are defined for every factor.
2. Writing Scenario
This step starts with selecting and clustering some assumptions with each other. Assumptions with low probabilities and high impacts (positively or negatively), are clustered under the best-case or worst-case scenario depending on whether they have positive or negative impacts. On the other hand, assumtions with high probabilities, are clustured under the base-case scenario.
After clustering, a scenario text is written through the clustered assumptions. It is like a future depiction.
3. Planning
As all scenarios are written, the last step is to prepare an action and resource plan for every scenario. How types of actions will we take if these scenarios realize?
Please download the Strategic Scenario Planning template in MS Excel in the following: